The Oil Drum | U.S. Shale Gas: Less Abundance, Higher Cost

The Oil Drum | U.S. Shale Gas: Less Abundance, Higher Cost.

U.S. Shale Gas: Less Abundance, Higher Cost

Posted by aeberman on August 5, 2011 – 10:15am
Topic: Geology/Exploration
Tags: demand, economics, shale gas, supply [list all tags]

Arthur E. Berman and Lynn F. Pittinger

Lynn Pittinger is a consultant in petroleum engineering with 30 years of industry experience. He managed economic and engineering evaluations for Unocal and Occidental Oil & Gas, and has been an independent consultant since 2008. He has collaborated with Berman on all shale play evaluation projects since 2009.

Introduction

Shale gas has become an important and permanent feature of U.S. energy supply. Daily production has increased from less than 1 billion cubic feet of gas per day (bcfd) in 2003, when the first modern horizontal drilling and fracture stimulation was used, to almost 20 bcfd by mid-2011.

There are, however, two major concerns at the center of the shale gas revolution:

• Despite impressive production growth, it is not yet clear that these plays are commercial at current prices because of the high capital costs of land and drilling and completion.

• Reserves and economics depend on estimated ultimate recoveries based on hyperbolic, or increasingly flattening, decline profiles that predict decades of commercial production. With only a few years of production history in most of these plays, this model has not been shown to be correct, and may be overly optimistic.

These are not purely technical topics for debate among petroleum professionals. The marketing of the shale gas phenomenon has been so effective that important policy and strategic decisions are being made based on as yet unproven assumptions about the abundance and low cost of these plays. The “Pickens Plan” seeks to get congressional approval for natural gas subsidies that might eventually lead to conversion of large parts of our vehicle fleet to run on natural gas. This might commit the U.S. to decades of natural gas exports at fixed prices in the face of scarcity and increasing prices in the domestic market. Similarly, companies have gotten permits from the government to transform liquefied natural gas import terminals into export facilities that would commit the U.S. to decades of large, fixed export volumes. If reserves are less and cost is more than many assume, these could be disastrous decisions.

Executive Summary

Our analysis indicates that industry reserves are over-stated by at least 100 percent based on detailed review of both individual well and group decline profiles for the Barnett, Fayetteville and Haynesville shale plays. The contraction of extensive geographic play regions into relatively small core areas greatly reduces the commercially recoverable reserves of the plays that we have studied.

The Barnett and Fayetteville shale plays have the most complete history of production and thus provide the best available analogues for shale gas plays with less complete histories. We recognize that all shale plays are different but, until more production history is available, the best assumption is that newer plays will develop along similar lines to these older plays. There is now far too much data in Barnett and Fayetteville to continue use of strong hyperbolic flattening decline models with b coefficients greater than 1.0.

Type curves that are commonly used to support strong hyperbolic flattening are misleading because they incorporate survivorship bias and rate increases from re-stimulations that require additional capital investment. Comparison of individual and group decline-curve analysis indicates that group or type-curve methods substantially over-estimate recoverable reserves.

Results to date in the Haynesville Shale play are disappointing, and will substantially underperform industry claims. In fact, it is difficult to understand how companies justify 125 rigs drilling in a play that has not yet demonstrated commercial viability at present reserve projections until gas prices exceed $8.68 per mmBu.

Full Report

CONTENTS

Production Volume and Reserve Growth vs. Profitability
Entry of Major Oil Companies Into Shale Plays
Evaluation of Shale Gas Well Performance
Well Performance Evaluation Methodology
Barnett Well Performance
Fayetteville Well Performance
Haynesville Well Performance
Comparison to Operator Claims
Matching Aggregate Production Profiles for Shale Gas Plays
Economics
Summary and Conclusions
Appendix

DEC, major gas company locked in land battle | The Ithaca Journal | theithacajournal.com

DEC, major gas company locked in land battle | The Ithaca Journal | theithacajournal.com.

DEC, major gas company locked in land battle

8:17 PM, Aug. 5, 2011  |
Jon Campbell
jcampbell1@gannett.com

ALBANY — One of the country’s largest natural gas producers and the state of New York appear headed for a battle over a soon-to-be-expiring contract for the natural gas rights on state forestland.

Chesapeake Energy is contending that the company’s gas leases on 15,472 acres of state-owned land in central New York and the Southern Tier should be extended as the state decides how to regulate hydraulic fracturing to extract natural gas.

The leases, which were signed in 2006, are set to expire Nov. 15.

In a letter obtained by Gannett’s Albany Bureau, Chesapeake wrote to the state Department of Environmental Conservation in February that the leases should be extended until the state starts issuing certain drilling permits.

Because the state has yet to allow high-volume hydraulic fracturing — a newer technique used with natural gas drilling — the company believes it has legal ground to prolong the lease, wrote Henry Hood, the company’s senior vice president.

“Chesapeake regrets these circumstances, including the need for this communication,” Hood wrote. “Chesapeake looks forward to the time when it can move forward with the safe and responsible development of the shale resources in New York State.”

The company made the claim under “force majeure,” a legal clause inserted in many contracts that allows either party to extend the length of the deal if unforeseen circumstances prevent it from being carried out. For the state’s leases with Chesapeake, the clause includes “acts of God, work stoppages due to labor disputes or strikes, fires, explosions, epidemics, riots, war rebellion, sabotage or the like.”

In a statement, the DEC didn’t rule out legal action to end the leases in November.

“We are in the process of determining our next steps,” spokeswoman Emily DeSantis said.

Similar attempts to extend gas leases have ended up in the courtroom.

Chesapeake is battling two lawsuits in federal court by Southern Tier landowners who received force majeure letters about their leases in recent years. The original expiration dates on those leases, which date back a decade, have already passed. The landowners want to end them permanently — in large part because the land would be more valuable under a new deal.

The company’s force majeure claims are significant because the acreage sits above the massive, gas-rich Marcellus and Utica shale formations. The state leases are on gas rights below state forests in Broome, Tioga, Chemung, Cortland, Schuyler and Steuben counties.

In 2006, the DEC took bids on about 19,000 acres of gas rights below state-owned forestland. Chesapeake and Fortuna Energy (now Talisman Energy) were the winning bidders, paying a combined $9 million up front to the state with a promise of 12.5 percent royalties on any gas produced.

Since then, technological advancements to the hydrofracking process — which injects water, sand and chemicals deep underground to break up shale formations — have made the Marcellus accessible to gas companies.

The value of the gas rights on the land above the formation, such as the state forestland in dispute, has skyrocketed.

In July 2008, then-Gov. David Paterson announced that the state couldn’t issue permits for high-volume hydrofracking until the DEC completed an environmental review and set up permitting guidelines. Last year, he called for the DEC to put out a second draft of its review for public comment, which is set to kick off later this summer.

The DEC is expected to complete its review at some point next year, but put out a preliminary report last month. Chesapeake says the length of the lease has essentially been on pause since July 2008 and will restart when permits are issued.

A Chesapeake official said the company is trying to protect its investment, and the state’s decision to hold off on hydrofracking prevents the company from “fulfilling its obligation for natural-gas production on these properties.”

“Chesapeake has taken reasonable and legal measures to extend the terms of many of our leases in New York State,” Paul Hartman, the company’s director of state government relations in New York, said in a statement. “These measures are based upon the original lease agreements, which can allow for extensions of the original lease term for various reasons.”

Talisman has not filed an extension claim on any of the 3,754 acres of state gas rights it has leased until November. A spokeswoman for the company did not return a call for comment.

Talisman has faced criticism for trying to enforce its expired leases. In 2009, the company agreed to a $192,500 settlement after then-Attorney General Andrew Cuomo found it was misleading customers with its force majeure claims.

Attorneys for private landowners have argued in lawsuits that the state’s permitting freeze doesn’t prohibit Chesapeake from upholding their end of the contract. They have contended that other gas-producing formations — such as the Trenton Black River and the Herkimer sandstone formation — are still accessible and can be drilled without high-volume hydrofracking.

Because the leases date back a decade, the gas-rich Marcellus and Utica formations weren’t on the company’s radar screen at the time, the lawsuits argue.

But while the private landowners’ lawsuits against Chesapeake seek to have the force majeure claims thrown out and allow their below-market-value leases to expire, the situation with the state-owned land could be more complicated.

A draft of the DEC’s proposed regulations for high-volume hydrofracking proposes a ban of surface drilling on state land, despite the existing Talisman and Chesapeake leases. About 32,500 acres of other state-owned gas rights — mostly in the southwest corner of the state — are also under lease to energy companies so long as existing wells on those properties continue to produce natural gas.

The new technology, however, allows companies to drill on a private piece of land before turning the drill bit horizontal and burrowing under neighboring properties. So if the company holds the rights to a private parcel near the state land, it could obtain gas from that state land by drilling horizontally — despite the surface-drilling ban.

But the DEC holds a significant trump card.

Since the department decides whether or not to grant permits, it could simply decide to reject any applications from Chesapeake that includes any drilling on the forestland in question.

Chesapeake declined to discuss specifics, but Hartman said the company would prefer drilling for gas rather than debating over contract language.

“Chesapeake would much rather be drilling wells and creating value for New Yorkers, especially in the Southern Tier where economic development is much needed and for the whole state where clean energy is much needed,” Hartman said.

Once the Chesapeake and Talisman leases do expire, the DEC could choose to put them out for bid again to generate revenue for the state, with a provision banning drilling on the surface of the state’s properties.

The department spokeswoman, however, said it’s not currently in the cards.

“While this would be possible under the revised draft (regulations), we have no plans to do so at this time,” DeSantis said.

Campbell is a staff writer for the Gannett Albany Bureau.

Scholastic InSchool Backing Off Its Corporate Ties – NYTimes.com

Scholastic InSchool Backing Off Its Corporate Ties – NYTimes.com.

EPA Report: Fracking Contaminated Drinking Water | Environmental Working Group

EPA Report: Fracking Contaminated Drinking Water | Environmental Working Group.

EPA Report: Fracking Contaminated Drinking Water

Categories

  • CONTACT: EWG Public Affairs: 202.667.6982. leeann@ewg.org
  • FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: August 3rd, 2011

Washington, D.C. – Contrary to the drilling industry claim that hydraulic fracturing has never contaminated groundwater, the Environmental Protection Agency concluded in a 1987 study that “fracking” of a natural gas well in West Virginia contaminated an underground drinking water source. That all-but-forgotten report to Congress, uncovered by Environmental Working Group and Earthjustice, found that fracturing gel from a shale gas well more than 4,000 feet deep had contaminated well water.

EPA investigators concluded that the contamination was “illustrative” of a broader problem of pollution associated with hydraulic fracturing but said the agency’s investigation was hampered by confidentiality agreements between industry and affected landowners. Environmental Working Group’s year-long investigation of the incident found that several abandoned natural gas wells located near the fractured well in West Virginia could have served as conduits that allowed the gel, a common ingredient in fracking fluid, to migrate into the water well.

“When you add up the gel in the water, the presence of abandoned wells and the documented ability of drilling fluids to migrate through these wells into underground water supplies, there is a lot of evidence that EPA got it right and that this was indeed a case of hydraulic fracturing contamination of groundwater,” said Dusty Horwitt, EWG’s senior oil and gas analyst and author of “Cracks in the Façade,” EWG’s report about EPA’s finding. “Now it’s up to EPA to pick up where it left off 25 years ago and determine the true risks of fracking so that our drinking water can be protected.”

Since the 1987 report, the industry has hydraulically fractured hundreds of thousands of wells and is continuing a historic push into natural gas-bearing shale formations, once considered inaccessible, that lie beneath populated areas in a number of states, including West Virginia, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Louisiana and Arkansas.

To access these formations, drillers often use a relatively new combination of horizontal drilling and higher-volume fracturing. As drilling activity has intensified, reports of pollution have sparked a growing national debate over the actual or potential environmental risks, including contamination of groundwater, the source of drinking water for more than 100 million Americans, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Congress exempted hydraulic fracturing from the Safe Drinking Water Act in 2005 following an EPA study of hydraulic fracturing the previous year which found little risk to water supplies when fracturing is conducted in coal bed methane deposits. Neither Congress nor the EPA mentioned the agency’s 1987 finding. EPA is currently conducting a new study of fracking’s impact on water supplies.

“During the fracturing process,” EPA investigators wrote in the 1987 report, which focused on the handling of natural gas, oil and geothermal wastes generally, “fractures can be produced, allowing migration of native brine, fracturing fluid and hydrocarbons from the oil or gas well to a nearby water well. When this happens, the water well can be permanently damaged and a new well must be drilled or an alternative source of drinking water found.”

Environmental Working Group found that the evidence in the West Virginia case was consistent with pollution from hydraulic fracturing, though it is possible that another stage of the drilling process caused the problem.

In the EPA’s files in Washington, EWG also discovered a document submitted in 1987 by the American Petroleum Institute, the natural gas and oil industry’s major trade association, that appeared to agree with the EPA finding but suggested that it was not typical. “One case,” the API wrote, referring to the West Virginia contamination case, “resulted in a workover operation fracturing into groundwater as a result of equipment failure or accident. As described in the detail write-up, this is not a normal result of fracturing as it ruins the productive capability of the wells.”

# # #

EWG is a nonprofit research organization based in Washington, DC that uses the power of information to protect human health and the environment. http://www.ewg.org

Follow EWG’s natural resources work on Twitter @EWGfracking

Gas Industry Plans to Challenge Towns’ Zoning Protections. Dryden board to vote on limits tonight. Cortland Standard, Aug. 2, 2011

Interesting that IOGA is meeting with local editorial boards.

NY Post Pushes Fracking Study Without Noting Industry Funding | Media Matters for America

NY Post Pushes Fracking Study Without Noting Industry Funding | Media Matters for America.

Gov. Cuomo hails Pennsylvania study showing economic boom from hydro fracking – NYPOST.com

Gov. Cuomo hails Pennsylvania study showing economic boom from hydro fracking – NYPOST.com.

Spanier responds to “This American Life” | For the Record | CentreDaily.com

Spanier responds to “This American Life” | For the Record | CentreDaily.com.

Spanier responds to “This American Life”

Posted: 1:04pm on Jul 18, 2011; Modified: 1:04pm on Jul 18, 2011

Penn State President Graham Spanier said he thinks the recent “This American Life” episode that focused on the natural gas industry in Pennsylvania was unbalanced.
The Public Radio International program, which was broadcast on WPSU, looked at the Marcellus Shale boom, including what it portrayed as an “entwined” relationship between industry, Penn State and Pitt universities and state government. That segment of the program featured interviews with Penn State Professor Terry Engelder and former Pitt professor Dan Volz. Volz is critical of the industry, while Engelder is supportive.
“I’m not sure the purpose of the program was to portray a balanced view of a very complex issue of the exploration and environmental protection around Marcellus Shale,” Spanier said when asked about the show. “We have 500 researchers working in the area of energy and the environment — 500. So, whatever conclusions you’d want to make about what one person is saying and therefore jump to conclusions about what the president of the university is thinking or doing is pretty off-base.”
“Wasn’t one of their main points that we were in collusion with the governor — really?” Spanier asked, before laughing.
Gov. Tom Corbett had proposed cutting state funding for Penn State and the other state-related universities in half this year. In the end, the final 2011-12 budget cuts state funding for the universities by 19 percent.

Clashing Views on the Future of Natural Gas – Readers’ Comments – NYTimes.com

Clashing Views on the Future of Natural Gas – Readers’ Comments – NYTimes.com.

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Countdown Contributor Mark Ruffalo on Fracking | Countdown with Keith Olbermann

 Countdown Contributor Mark Ruffalo on Fracking | Countdown with Keith Olbermann.