FW: Energy Plan forecasts -4

FW: Energy Plan forecasts – mary.beilby@gmail.com – Gmail.

On Thu, Feb 13, 2014 at 9:40 PM, Keith Schue <keithschue@yahoo.com> wrote:

Larysa,

I too was troubled in reading the particular provision on Article 6 that you cited:

“b) Any energy-related action or decision of a state agency, board, commission or authority shall be reasonably consistent with the forecasts and the policies and long-range energy planning objectives and strategies contained in the plan.”

This really underscores how harmful the many “forecasts” in the draft plan are–anemic growth in renewables dropping to nothing after 2020, the continued expansion of natural gas over the next 30 years, and let’s not forget the tripling of gas production in New York itself due to fracking (which I’ll repeat the plan does indeed forecast on page 88 of Vol2-sources).

The statute appears to say that once these forecasts are made, they must then be used as a pathway for future planning–a circular “self-fulfilling prophesy” whereby the plan forecasts what would occur on its own in the absence of action and then relies on those same forecasts to create the future that they predict.

I believe our challenge will be to argue that instead of relying on passive “forecasts” (which are throughout the entire document), the plan must instead establish proactive“forecasts” which buck trends as needed to achieve the necessary outcome–namely an 80% reduction in total GHG emissions by 2050, which we can rationally argue requires a major shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

Keith