Exxon’s Shale Reserves Drop Dramatically | EnergyPolicyForum

Exxon’s Shale Reserves Drop Dramatically | EnergyPolicyForum.

Jannette Barth on Economics of Fracking, renewables and fossil fuels

NYPIRG and VeRSE present Dr. Jannette Barth speaking on the economics of *fracking* and renewables and fossil fuels.

The presentation will be on November 21st at the Binghamton University campus, 6 pm in Science Building 1, room 149 (S1 149).

Recently, various reports have confirmed the analyses of various independent economists, including Jannette Barth, Ph.D., which have suggested that the economic gains from fracking are industry-contrived and short-lived.  Letter to Governor Cuomo from Three Concerned Economists, Dr. Barth, a Catskill homeowner and former chief economist for the M.T.A. has criticized the overly-optimistic forecasts, contending that the models are flawed and the data incomplete, at best.  Critique of PPI Study on Shale Gas Job Creation,  Unanswered Questions About The Economic Impact of Gas Drilling in the Marcellus Shale: Don’t Jump to Conclusions, Moreover, Dr. Barth, in one of the very few peer-reviewed articles on shale gas economics, concludes that job gains are minor, money flows out of extraction states and that any booms tend to be followed by pronounced and extended busts, as pre-existing industries are irreparably destroyed by fracking THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT ON STATE AND LOCAL ECONOMIES: BENEFITS, COSTS, AND UNCERTAINTIES,

Over the last week, a clutch of reports has laid bare the exaggerated job claims in Pennsylvania and Arkansas and the inevitable bust which has followed shale gas extraction in the Marcellus and Fayetteville shales.  Both reports confirm Dr. Barth’s conclusions and should be recognized by policymakers who contemplate whether to allow fracking in New York state.  In Arkansas, local business owners have recognized that workers must follow the rigs from state-to-state—now to North Dakota and Montana–and that the motel business, which surged briefly, has crashed.  Economy slows with Fayetteville Shale drilling lag

Meanwhile, next door in Pennsylvania, the Pro-Fracking Corbett administration’s much ballyhooed job claims have been shown to be merely “[r]obust and aggressive statements about job creation which overstate dramatically the effects of one specific area of economic activity.”  Pennsylvania Marcellus shale job creation claims being overstated? In fact, “According to a grimmer-than-expected report from the Keystone Research Group, the workforce outlook for Pennsylvanians is the bleakest it has been since 2010.”  Report: Pa. outlook on jobs worst in three years

 ____________________

Pa. fracking boom goes bust

Pa. fracking boom goes bust.

Economics of Frac-Sand Mining Final.pdf

Economics of Frac-Sand Mining Final.pdf.

Need to Know: April 12, 2013: Main Street: Findlay, Ohio | Need to Know | PBS

Need to Know: April 12, 2013: Main Street: Findlay, Ohio | Need to Know | PBS.

Now cheap energy (fossil) will fuel manufacturing; too bad these plants produce few or no jobs and destroy the environment and produce climate instability!

From the transcript!

FINDLAY IS AT THE CENTER OF ANOTHER, SURPRISING DEVELOPMENT. AFTER DECADES OF DECLINE – THE NUMBER OF AMERICAN MANUFACTURING JOBS IS RISING. AMERICAN FACTORY JOBS ARE ACTUALLY COMING BACK.

FINDLAY WITH 150 MANUFACTURING FACILITIES, HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY SUCCESSFUL AT ATTRACTING FACTORY WORK. WHIRLPOOL, AT 4901 NORTH MAIN STREET IS THE LARGEST DISHWASHER PLANT IN THE WORLD. IT EMPLOYS MORE THAN 2,000 PEOPLE. AND LAST YEAR IT ADDED 114 NEW EMPLOYEES, AND BECAME PART OF A STORY MUCH BIGGER THAN FINDLAY, AFFECTING THOUSAND OF COMPANIES AND POTENTIALLY MILLIONS OF WORKERS.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: After shedding jobs for more than 10 years, our manufacturers have added about 500,000 jobs over the past three. Caterpillar is bringing jobs back from Japan. Ford is bringing jobs back from Mexico. And this year, Apple will start making Macs in America again.

JOHN LARSOn [narration]: WHILE ONE CAN ARGUE HOW MUCH THE PRESIDEnt OR HIS ADMINISTRATION had to do with IT, at least 220 American companies have reportedly brought an estimated 50,000 jobs back to the US since January of 2010 — most coming from China. BUT WHY NOW, AFTER decades of losing FACTORY jobs?

GREG ARBURN: It’s potentially enormous.

JOHN LARSOn [narration]: Dr. Greg ARBURN is a professor of economics at the University of Findlay, on Main Street. He says, American manufacturing is returning in part because OF the tremendous EXPANSION OF domestic oil and gas production.

GREG ARBURN: For the United States, the cost of– of natural gas is much lower than it is for a lot of our competitors. Japan, the price of natural gas, China, the price of natural gas is more in the $17 range, where here in the United States it’s more in the three and a half dollar range for a million BTU. That’s a huge advantage. That’s—

JOHN LARSON: So six times less expensive here in U.S.?

GREG ARBURN: That– that’s– that’s a big deal.

JOHN LARSOn [narration]: IT’S NOT A COINCIDENCE THAT MARATHON PETROLEUM IS HEADQUARTED ON FINDLAY’S MAIN STREET. IN THE LATE 1800’S THE COMPANY FORMED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF RICH LOCAL OIL AND GAS FIELDS AND MANUFACTURING RUSHED TO FINDLAY, TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CHEAP, EVEN FREE ENERGY.

NOW, IT APPEARS IT MAY BE HAPPENING AGAIN. NEW TECHOLOGY OF HYDRAULIC FRACTURING AND SHALE OIL RECOVERY, WHILE ENVIRONMENTALLY CONTROVERSIAL, HAS TRIGGED UNPRECEDENTED OIL AND GAS DISCOVERIES, DROPPED THE PRICE OF ENERGY, AND LAUNCHED WHAT ARBURN AND OTHERS BELIEVE MAY BE A NEW ERA OF AMERICAN FACTORY JOBS.

GREG ARBURN: In the case of Ohio– estimates are t– range wildly from 20,000 to 200,000 jobs in Ohio over the next three years — especially in the natural gas industry.

JOHN LARSON: Even if you take the average of that, you’re talking about a hundred thousand jobs just in this state.

GREG ARBURN: That’s a boom. That’s a lotta jobs. That’s a lot of people with more income –puts kids through school.

JOHN LARSOn [narration]: a second reason for manufacturing growth is that American corporations are investing in technology helping American labor become even more efficient.

GREG ARBURN: One of the things that’s happened, is interest rates have gone down and gone down and gone down. And so firms have found themselves in a situation where th– with a– with a very reasonable cost and capital, they can adapt new technologies, make capital investments, become even more productive.

JOHN LARSOn [narration]: TAKE ONE LOOK AT THE BALL CORPORATION’S CAN MANUFACTURING PLANT JUST A BLOCK OFF MAIN. 24 HOURS A DAY. 7 DAYS A WEEK. 3000 CANS A MINUTE. 3 BILLION A YEAR – ITS THE LARGEST RECYCLABLE ALUMINUM CAN MANUFACTURER IN THE WORLD. BUT JUST LAST YEAR BALL INVESTED ANOTHER $14.6 MILLION DOLLARS HERE TO BRING IN MORE LINES AND FURTHER IMPROVE ITS TECHNOLOGY. THE FACTORY’S EFFICIENCY JUMPED TO UNPRECEDENTED LEVELS.

GLENN JOST: There’s a drive. All of us want to succeed. Every plant I know of out there in our division wants to do better.

JOHN LARSOn [narration]: GLENN JOST IS THE PLANT’S MANAGER. BALL RECENTLY CLOSED PLANTS IN OHIO AND FLORIDA, BUT EXPANDED THE PLANT IN FINDLAY, ADDING 30 NEW EMPLOYEES. STILL THE MASSIVE PLANT IS SO EFFICIENT THERE ARE ONLY 90 EMPLOYEES ON THE FACTORY FLOOR.

JOHN LARSON: My first reaction when I saw it was, “Wow.” And my second reaction was sorta, “Where is everybody?” You know, I expected to see 1,000 people running around these machines.

GLENN JOST: The machines to a degree run by themselves. But they don’t run unless we have people capable of programming those machines, people capable of keeping them running mechanically. Electronically, yes. It looks like it runs by itself but it doesn’t.

JOHN LARSOn [narration]: THESE HIGHLY SKILLED WORKERS OPERATE PROGRAMMABLE LOGIC CONTROLS – SOPHISTICATED COMPUTER SYSTEMS – THAT AUTOMATE THE PRODUCTION LINE, AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS DOWN TO A MILLIONTH OF AN INCH.

AND THEN THERE ARE WAGES. JOBS ARE RETURNING TO THE U.S. IN PART BECAUSE WAGES IN CHINA ARE RISING, WHILE NATIONALLY MANUFACTING WAGES HERE IN THE U.S. ARE FALLING. GOVERNMENT STATISTICS FOR THE FINDLAY AREA REFLECT THIS, SHOWING WAGES IN LOCAL MANUFACTURING ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN SERVICE INDUSTRY JOBS, FOR EXAMPLE – BUT NOT AS HIGH AS SOME MIGHT THINK, AND THE MANUFACTURING WAGES HERE ARE DROPPING.

CHRIS RENN: Their benefits package in industry is still gonna be better than if they worked in the service industry. But the reality is, all of us are– are struggling with health care and the expense of health care and the benefits packages probably are not what they used to be– all across the board.

JOHN LARSOn [narration]: FEW ARE MORE FOCUSED ON THE FUTURE OF INDUSTRY WAGES AND JOBS THAN CHRIS RENN, DIRECTOR OF FINDLAY’S MILLSTREAM CAREER CENTER.

IN 2007 THE BLANCHARD RIVER JUMPED ITS BANKS AND FLOODED FINDLAY – ONE OF THE WORST FLOODS OF THE YEAR IN THE MIDWEST. AFTER THE FLOOD, HOWEVER, VOTERS APPROVED THIS NEW 19 MILLION HIGHSCHOOL FOCUSED ON TECHNICAL TRAINING – PREPARING STUDENTS FOR A FUTURE IN, AMONG OTHERS THINGS, MANUFACTURING.

CHRIS RENN: Just in northwestern Ohio alone, over the next seven years it’s estimated there’s gonna be 59,000 job openings in manufacturing. That’s gigantic, and– most industry that we talk with– they have no idea where they’re gonna find those workers.

U.S. GAO – Unconventional Oil and Gas Production: Opportunities and Challenges of Oil Shale Development

U.S. GAO – Unconventional Oil and Gas Production: Opportunities and Challenges of Oil Shale Development.

 

What GAO Found

In its October 2010 report, GAO noted that oil shale development presents the following opportunities for the United States:

  • Increasing domestic oil production. Tapping the vast amounts of oil locked within U.S. oil shale formations could go a long way toward satisfying the nation’s future oil demands. Oil shale deposits in the Green River Formation are estimated to contain up to 3 trillion barrels of oil, half of which may be recoverable, which is about equal to the entire world’s proven oil reserves.
  • Socioeconomic benefits. Development of oil shale resources could lead to the creation of jobs, increases in wealth, and increases in tax and royalty payments to federal and state governments for oil produced on their lands. The extent of these benefits, however, is unknown at this time because the ultimate size of the industry is uncertain.

In addition to these opportunities and the uncertainty of not yet having an economical and environmentally viable commercial scale technology, the following challenges should also be considered:

  • Impacts on water, air, and wildlife. Developing oil shale and providing power for oil shale operations and other activities will require large amounts of water and could have significant impacts on the quality and quantity of surface and groundwater resources. In addition, construction and mining activities during development can temporarily degrade air quality in local areas. There can also be long-term regional increases in air pollutants from oil shale processing and the generation of additional electricity to power oil shale development operations. Oil shale operations will also require the clearing of large surface areas of topsoil and vegetation which can affect wildlife habitat, and the withdrawal of large quantities of surface water which could also negatively impact aquatic life.
  • Socioeconomic impacts. Oil shale development can bring an influx of workers, who along with their families can put additional stress on local infrastructure such as roads, housing, municipal water systems, and schools. Development from expansion of extractive industries, such as oil shale or oil and gas, has typically followed a “boom and bust” cycle, making planning for growth difficult for local governments. Moreover, traditional rural uses would be displaced by industrial uses and areas that rely on tourism and natural resources would be negatively impacted.

GAO’s 2010 report found that federal research efforts on the impacts of oil shale development did not provide sufficient data for future monitoring and that there was a greater need for collaboration among key federal stakeholders to address water resources and research issues. Specifically, Interior and DOE officials generally have not shared information on their oil shale research efforts, and there was a need for the federal agencies to improve their collaboration and develop more comprehensive baseline information related to water resources in the region. GAO made three recommendations to Interior, which the department generally concurred with and has already begun to take actions to address.

Why GAO Did This Study

Fossil fuels are important to both the global and U.S. economies, and “unconventional” oil and gas resources—resources that cannot be produced, transported, or refined using traditional techniques—are expected to play a larger role in helping the United States meet future energy needs. With rising energy prices one such resource that has received renewed domestic attention in recent years is oil shale. Oil shale is a sedimentary rock that contains solid organic material that can be converted into an oil-like product when heated. About 72 percent of this oil shale is located within the Green River Formation in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming and lies beneath federal lands managed by the Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Land Management, making the federal government a key player in its potential development. In addition, the Department of Energy (DOE), advances energy technology, including for oil shale, through its various offices, national laboratories, and arrangements with universities.

GAO’s testimony is based on its October 2010 report on the impacts of oil shale development (GAO-11-35). This testimony summarizes the opportunities and challenges of oil shale development identified in that report and the status of prior GAO recommendations that Interior take actions to better prepare for the possible future impacts of oil shale development.

For more information, contact Anu K. Mittal at (202) 512-3841 or mittala@gao.gov.

Natural-Gas Windfall Wanes – WSJ.com

Natural-Gas Windfall Wanes – WSJ.com.

Video: Groundswell: Hydrofracking in NYS | Watch WCNY Series Online | WCNY/Channel 24 Video

Video: Groundswell: Hydrofracking in NYS | Watch WCNY Series Online | WCNY/Channel 24 Video.

Obama’s State of the Union: What Does It Mean for the Energy Agenda? – Energy & Environment Experts

Obama’s State of the Union: What Does It Mean for the Energy Agenda? – Energy & Environment Experts.

Hydrofracking Gives Chemung County, N.Y., Economic Boost – NYTimes.com

Hydrofracking Gives Chemung County, N.Y., Economic Boost – NYTimes.com.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 115 other followers