Most U.S. LNG projects won’t cross the finish line, new study says – Fuel Fix

Most U.S. LNG projects won’t cross the finish line, new study says – Fuel Fix.

 

Most of the proposed U.S. liquefied natural gas export projects won’t get built amid stiffening competition from foreign competitors who will flood the market with the supercooled gas as demand begins to slow, a new study finds.

Five U.S. LNG projects already under construction, including Cheniere’s two terminals in Louisiana and Corpus Christi, will cross the finish line, but beyond that, construction appears “increasingly unlikely” for the remaining proposals, according to the latest study unveiled Tuesdayby a task force of natural gas experts assembled by the Brookings Institution, a Washington D.C.-based thinktank.

It’s the latest report to raise doubts about the flurry of multi-billion dollar proposals announced in recent years that would soak up vast supplies of cheap U.S. natural gas destined for markets in Asia.

“We believe it will be increasingly difficult to finance new LNG projects, due to high upfront costs in combination with a substantial number of uncertainties which influence supply and demand,” the report said.

Developers have been rolling out proposals on the assumptions that U.S. natural gas prices will remain at record low levels while LNG prices in Asia and Europe remain high, offering North American exporters attractive margins. Developers also placed bets that U.S. LNG, which is linked to natural gas prices, would allow them to hold a competitive edge over foreign suppliers, whose LNG is tied to crude prices, which were relatively high until they began falling late last year.

The report found that there are flaws in those assumptions that call into question whether U.S. LNG projects will be successful.

“While the projected number of North American LNG export facilities is massive, closer examination of the projects’ financial realities offer a more nuanced story,” the report stated.

U.S. natural gas prices are expected to rise slowly, which could undercut the competitive advantage of U.S. LNG exports unless developers figure out cheaper ways to liquefy, transport and re-heat the gas. Natural gas faces stiffer competition from other competing fuel sources, such as cheap coal and renewables, and that waning demand makes it increasingly difficult for North American LNG projects to turn a profit, the report found. And collapsing crude prices gave a fresh advantage to rival oil-linked LNG projects in other countries.

With international oil price hovering just under $60 per barrel, Australia is more competitive than U.S. exporters when it comes to supplying LNG to lucrative and high-demand Asian markets, the report found.

U.S. projects are “poised to compete favorably” in the global marketplace because they’re cheaper to build, particularly the so-called “brownfield” projects that call for converting import terminals into export facilities. Developers also have access to cheaper energy and “significant skilled labor at a reasonable cost” compared to other countries.

But swelling demand for materials and labor could erode the U.S. advantage at a time when falling oil prices are making foreign projects more attractive, the report found.

 

“Given all these uncertainties, possible constraints and the fact that a significant amount of projects are permeating the market in the coming years, it may be increasingly difficult to finance projects going forward,” the report said.

—–

You might know that Brookings is a conservative leaning think-tank.

After a quick search, I found the below linked report at their site, which may be the one being written about in the above report from Fuel Fix (what a lovely name!)

http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2015/07/us-natural-gas-exports

This could be useful to those fighting pipeline build-out.

 

Cecile

Cécile Lawrence, Ph.D., J.D.

Chesapeake Refuses to Fix OH Road, Town Terminates RUMA | Marcellus Drilling News

Chesapeake Refuses to Fix OH Road, Town Terminates RUMA | Marcellus Drilling News.

Sources: D.E.C. says options limited for opposing crude facility | Capital New York

Sources: D.E.C. says options limited for opposing crude facility | Capital New York.

Marcellus-Utica Midstream Conf: $30B of NE Infrastructure Needed | Marcellus Drilling News

Marcellus-Utica Midstream Conf: $30B of NE Infrastructure Needed | Marcellus Drilling News.

What’s REV and the CEF and Why Do They Matter? | AGREE

What’s REV and the CEF and Why Do They Matter? | AGREE.

DEC Extends Public Comment Period On Proposed Constitution Pipeline Until FEB. 27th – A New DEC Press Release

DEC Extends Public Comment Period On Proposed Constitution Pipeline Until FEB. 27th – A New DEC Press Release.

DEC Extends Public Comment Period On Proposed Constitution Pipeline Until FEB. 27th – A New DEC Press Release

DEC Extends Public Comment Period On Proposed Constitution Pipeline Until FEB. 27th

The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) today extended the public comment period on the draft permit for the proposed, federally regulated Constitution Pipeline and an upgrade to the Iroquois Wright Compressor station in Schoharie County by an additional 28 days. Public comments on the propose project will now be accepted until close of business on Friday, February 27.

The Constitution Pipeline is a proposed interstate natural gas pipeline that would traverse though Broome, Chenango, Delaware and Schoharie counties. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) was responsible for conducting an environmental review of the project and has the authority to approve the pipeline route. FERC issued a final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) in October, which can be viewed at: http://elibrary.FERC.gov/idmws/file_list.asp?accession_num=20141024-4001.

DEC maintains the authority to review applications for specific permits and approvals, including an Air Title V permit for the proposed compressor station upgrade, as well as a Water Quality Certification, a Protection of Waters permit, a Water Withdrawal permit and a Freshwater Wetlands permit for state-protected wetlands and adjacent areas.

Written comments should be submitted to:

Stephen M. Tomasik
DEC – Division of Environmental Permits
625 Broadway, 4th Floor
Albany, NY 12233-1750
constitution@dec.ny.gov

In addition, people can provide verbal or written comments at the following public meetings:

  • Binghamton – Monday, Jan. 12, 2015, 6 p.m. East Middle School Auditorium, 167 East Frederick Street
  • Oneonta – Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2015, 6 p.m.
    SUNY Oneonta Lecture Hall IRC #3, 108 Ravine Parkway
  • Cobleskill, Wednesday, Jan. 14. 2015, 6 p.m.
    SUNY Cobleskill, Bouck Hall Theater, State Route 7

Copies of the FEIS and DEC permit application documents can be viewed online at:http://www.constitutionpipeline.com/. Printed copies are available at:

The Broome County Public Library, 185 Court St., Binghamton
The Afton Free Library, 105A Main St., Afton
The Bainbridge Free Library, 13 N Main St., Bainbridge.
The Franklin Free Library, 334 Main St., Franklin
Sidney Memorial Public Library, 8 River St., Sidney
Deposit Free Library, 159 Front St., Deposit
The Community Library, 110 Union St., Cobleskill
Schoharie Free Library, 103 Knower Ave., Schoharie

Information on the Iroquois Wright Compressor Station can viewed at: http://www.iroquois.com/documents/WIP_-_NYSDEC_Air_Permit_Application_7-26-13.pdf

Printed copies are also available at:

Schoharie Free Library, 103 Knower Avenue, Schoharie
Town of Wright Municipal Building, 105-3 Factory Street, Gallupville

Gas pipeline expansion should alarm homeowners – The Washington Post

Gas pipeline expansion should alarm homeowners – The Washington Post.

Climate change: Get ready or get sued

Climate change: Get ready or get sued.

Agency responses to Constitution pipeline DEIS

Four agencies have specifically stated the DEIS is deficient, must be revised, and possibly supplemented. (The Army Corps feels the same, but, as a Cooperating Agency, didn’t use those terms.)

All five call for greater studies of alternative routes along existing easements. The specific requests vary by agency.

They all think going through interior / upland forests, and forested wetlands, is madness.

Most have said that the DEIS is incomplete because 24% (30 miles) of the proposed route HAVE NOT BEEN SURVEYED.

— big round of applause for the resisting landowners!

Here are links to the heavy weight agency comments:

Comment of US Environmental Protection Agency under CP13-499.
http://elibrary.FERC.gov/idmws/file_list.asp?accession_num=20140409-5120

U.S. Department of the Interior Submits Comments under  Draft Environmental Impact Statement, Constitution Pipeline and Wright Interconnect Projects, Pennsylvania and New York CP13-499 et al.
http://elibrary.FERC.gov/idmws/file_list.asp?accession_num=20140408-5035

Comment of Army Corp of Engineers under CP13-499.
http://elibrary.FERC.gov/idmws/file_list.asp?accession_num=20140408-5149

Comment of New York State Department of Environmental Conservation under CP13-499 et al.
http://elibrary.FERC.gov/idmws/file_list.asp?accession_num=20140407-5409

Comment of New York Public Service Commission under CP13-499.
http://elibrary.FERC.gov/idmws/file_list.asp?accession_num=20140407-5001

I’m slowing reading everyone’s comments. It will take some time for me to get through them all.

We’ve really done a remarkable job. Thanks to everyone for your time and financial contributions.
Anne Marie

Preble Takes a Stand

preble ban news 3-13-14_Page_2

A model for other Cortland Co. towns?  There are actually over 200 NY towns/cities/counties that have imposed bans or moratoria on various aspects of fossil fuel extraction, production, transportation and infrastructure.  Except for very specific bans on selling municipal water and processing fracking waste at the Cortland’s municipal treatment plant, this is the first ban in Cortland County and one of the most comprehensive state-wide.  This ban is based on the town’s comprehensive plan and on a revision of the zoning code,  local and external legal and technical consultation and extensive official and citizen participation.

Preble’s ban recognizes that the threats to its agricultural and rural character extend far beyond the drilling of gas wells because explosive fossil fuels require massive industrialization–pipelines, storage facilities, surface transportation by trucks and rail, compressors, etc.  Even if the NY hydrofracking ban remains in place, the fossil fuel infrastructure will continue to expand.

Concerns go beyond “worry” about water contamination, explosions, health dangers, economic boom and bust and destruction of existing economies.  Research from PA, CO, TX and other heavily industrialized fossil fuel production areas is providing proof that these impacts are real and significant.  This week’s fatal gas main explosion in New York City reminds us that continuing to rely on fossil fuels and our aging infrastructure is a dead end.

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